As President Donald Trump and his campaign have faced ongoing questions and investigations into their dealings with Russia during the 2016 election, Republicans have focused their 2016 efforts on a dueling conspiracy theory, which posits that the FBI’s counterintelligence operation concerning the Trump campaign and Russia—which evolved into the Mueller investigation—was driven by political bias. Unfortunately for the president and his allies, several of their most salacious claims are reportedly about to get debunked. The New York Times reports that a soon-to-be-released report from the Justice Department’s Inspector General regarding the FBI’s counterintelligence operation (code-named Crossfire Hurricane) is expected to undercut some of the GOP’s biggest talking points—including their accusation that the FBI spied on the Trump campaign.
Per the Times, Inspector General Michael Horowitz found “no evidence that the FBI attempted to place undercover agents or informants inside Donald J. Trump’s campaign in 2016.” The intelligence agency did undertake some covert steps as part of their investigation, which the Times describes as “typical law enforcement activities,” including the use of an FBI informant, academic Stefan A. Halper, who met with Trump campaign advisers Carter Page and George Papadopoulos. The agency also had an undercover agent meet with Papadopoulos, posing as Halper’s assistant. (The FBI’s “Crossfire Hurricane” operation was spurred by Papadopoulos being offered dirt on Hillary Clinton‘s campaign by a Russian intermediary, Joseph Mifsud.) But crucially, the Times notes, Horowitz “found no evidence that Mr. Halper tried to infiltrate the Trump campaign itself,” and that no FBI informants had ever been directed to gather information on the campaign. The findings will debunk a major talking point on the right that the FBI “spied” on the campaign, which has been propagated by U.S. Attorney General William Barr, and—of course— by Trump himself, who’s referred to the conspiracy theory as “the biggest & worst political scandal in the history of the United States of America.” “The fact is that the phony Witch Hunt is a giant scam where Democrats and other really bad people, SPIED ON MY CAMPAIGN!” the president tweeted in June. (Trump has also claimed without evidence that then-President Barack Obama wiretapped his phone as part of the supposed anti-Trump effort, which the Times suggests has also been debunked.) Current FBI Director Christopher Wray, for his part, has already said there’s no evidence to back up the spying theory, telling Congress in May that he doesn’t “personally have any evidence of that sort.”
And the spying claims aren’t the only Trumpworld conspiracy theories on the verge of getting debunked. According to the Times, whose Wednesday report builds on previous previews of the I.G. report from the Times and Washington Post, Horowitz has also dismantled several of the GOP’s other spurious 2016 claims, including the suggestion that Mifsud, who offered Papadopoulos dirt on Clinton, was himself an FBI informant. Papadopoulos, who was convicted for lying to FBI agents about his conversations with Mifsud, helped spread that claim himself, alleging that the FBI and CIA had intentionally used Mifsud to set Papadopoulos up and damage Trump’s campaign. Horowitz is also expected to report that the FBI did not, as Republicans like to claim, rely on information from the controversial dossier compiled by Christopher Steele to open their investigation.
But Horowitz’s report will also include details that Republicans will appreciate. The I.G. reportedly found that the FBI was “careless and unprofessional” in how it pursued a wiretap for Page (after the adviser left the Trump campaign), and the report will reportedly include an entire chart detailing the mistakes FBI officials made during that process. Horowitz reportedly also referred criminal charges regarding low-level FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith‘s alleged alteration of an email, which officials used to seek court approval for Page’s wiretap to be renewed. While the Steele dossier didn’t inspire the FBI to open their investigation, it was used as part of the wiretap application for Page, and Horowitz is expected to criticize the FBI for “failing to tell the judges who approved the wiretap applications about potential problems with the dossier.” But the top-line findings suggesting the FBI’s investigation wasn’t the political hit job the Trump team claims are sure to be a blow to the president and his allies—and its release probably won’t be the “historic” event Trump claimed it would be in a recent interview on Fox & Friends. (Or at least, not in the way he wants it to be.)