The Marvels is right around the corner. Marvel’s latest superhero team-up hits theaters on November 10, in the wake of several major box office flops and disappointments for Disney—and box office predictions for the film are stirring curiosity.
The Marvels is set to be one of the most significant Marvel Cinematic Universe crossover events since Avengers: Infinity War, featuring a major superhero team-up between Captain Marvel (Brie Larson), Monica Rambeau (Teyonah Parris), and Ms. Marvel (Iman Vellani). As a result, it serves as a direct sequel to both Captain Marvel and Ms. Marvel, and is expected to potentially tie up loose ends from WandaVision and Secret Invasion. The film sees the three heroes forced to team up when their powers become entangled. They will have to learn to work together quickly as they’re also facing a threat from the Kree revolutionary Dar-Benn (Zawe Ashton).
In addition to being a major crossover, The Marvels is also a much-needed female-led film from the franchise. Based on the trailers, it also looks like a whole lot of fun: there are heroes accidentally swapping places, meeting lots of kittens, and potentially even participating in a wedding and a musical number. While The Marvels looks very promising, there are many concerns due to recent unpredictability at the box office and whispers of superhero and franchise fatigue among audiences. Additionally, it’s very risky to release such a major film during the SAG-AFTRA strike, when promotional activities are limited.
All of which makes box office predictions for The Marvels particularly interesting.
The Marvels box office projections
Unfortunately, The Marvels‘ box office projections are not looking very good. With the film just a week away, box office tracker Box Office Pro estimates an opening weekend of $50 – $75 million. However, the estimations vary a bit from tracker to tracker. The Hollywood Reporter says that the film is tracking for a $75 million to $80 million opening, while The Quorum estimates a slightly higher $80 million to $90 million. Even the higher end of these estimations is still a bit low for an MCU film.
On average, MCU films tend to open to $70 – $100 million, though some have enjoyed bigger openings. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania opened to $104 million this year and was still considered a box office disappointment when it failed to break even. Meanwhile, the last time an MCU film opened below $70 million was eight years ago with the first Ant-Man film. If The Marvels really is tracking to open to $50 million or so, it could be the worst box office opening for the MCU in years. It’s also a massive step down from Captain Marvel, which opened to a massive $153 million in 2019. What’s especially concerning is that The Marvels‘ estimated budget is nearly $300 million (Captain Marvel‘s budget was around $150 – $175 million), making it even more difficult for The Marvels to break even.
Of course, these are just projections. While box office predictions can be fairly accurate in analyzing box office behavior and the attitudes of audiences, there is always the possibility for anomalies. However, The Marvels has a lot of things working against it, from strikes to lack of advertising to superhero fatigue. There’s also the fact that its lead trio is so new to the franchise, and audiences haven’t had much time to become attached to them before the team-up. It will be very disappointing if The Marvels flops, as the anti-woke crowd will insist it failed because it’s a female-led film. In reality, The Marvels has so much potential, and a female superhero team-up film is long overdue.
These low box office projections suggest it’s just not the right time for another superhero film, especially one with characters Marvel hasn’t taken its time to establish well enough.
This piece was written during the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike. Without the labor of the actors currently on strike, the work being covered here wouldn’t exist.
(featured image: Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
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