On the Tuesday before Christmas, Donald Trump welcomed Kellyanne Conway for lunch at the White House. Conway had resigned from the administration in August after her then 15-year-old daughter Claudia became an internet sensation for posting intimate details about the Conways’ marriage to social media. According to a source familiar with the lunch, Trump appeared to be wistful to see Conway back in the West Wing. The source said Trump spent much of the meal nostalgically reliving the thrill of his 2016 campaign. He also insisted that he had rightfully won reelection in November, but admitted that his bid to overturn the results was doomed. He even said he would attend Joe Biden’s inauguration. Conway did not respond to a request for comment; the White House declined to comment.
If Trump was moved by the Christmas spirit to accept the reality of his situation, it was fleeting. On the eve of Wednesday’s Congressional vote to certify the 2020 election, Trump is escalating his scorched-earth campaign against American democracy. On Sunday, The Washington Post published audio of Trump’s phone call to Georgia’s Republican secretary of state Brad Raffensperger during which Trump possibly committed a crime by telling Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes” and deliver the state to Trump. Earlier today, Trump tweeted that Vice President Mike Pence has the power “to reject fraudulently chosen electors,” a claim that’s baseless.
Republicans I have spoken to in recent days agree that Trump’s unconstitutional pressure tactics have no realistic chance to overturn the election. “It’s over,” a campaign adviser said. But they acknowledged Trump has succeeded in stoking a Republican civil war during his final days in office. Case in point: The move to challenge the electors led by Missouri senator Josh Hawley is being widely seen as a chance for Republicans with 2024 ambitions to appeal to the MAGA base. “It’s the first primary,” said a top GOP strategist.
Republicans like Ted Cruz who also want to carry the MAGA mantle are pushing the unprecedented challenge, which is opposed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. “Tomorrow is the litmus test,” the campaign adviser said. “It’s game theory,” a former West Wing official explained. “They think Trump’s base will reward them after [Trump is] gone.”
Trump is cheering on the Hawley–Cruz rebellion, tweeting Tuesday: “They will fight the ridiculous Electoral College Certification of Biden. How do you certify numbers that have now proven to be wrong and, in many cases, fraudulent!” Trump dubbed Republicans that oppose challenging the election the “Surrender Caucus.”
But the early positions staked out by likely 2024 candidates Hawley and Cruz are complicating the decision-making for others. According to the D.C. strategist, Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, another likely 2024 contender, opposed the election challenge as a way of defining himself. “GOP primaries are about drawing a contrast. Cotton saw that Hawley and Cruz had grabbed that space,” the strategist said. Another factor is internal Senate politics. “Cotton did not want the wrath of McConnell.” A source close to Cotton said the senator decided in December to oppose blocking the election certification, well before Hawley and Cruz advocated for it.
McConnell is famous for demanding lockstep loyalty in the GOP caucus. I asked the strategist what McConnell could do to punish the 13 senators who oppose certifying the election, a move McConnell has called “terrible.” “I bet the four freshman have new offices in double-wide trailers out in the parking lots,” he joked.
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