It was very exciting to see the Globes make some unexpected choices in their nominations for this category by including Coralie Fargeat and Payal Kapadia. Indeed, this group of nominees is mostly international filmmakers, which reflects this group’s taste. But in the end, I think they’re going to give the award to American filmmaker Brady Corbet, who has been picking up a slew of nominations and wins in the weeks leading up to the Globes. His more-than-three-hour epic earned the Silver Lion in Cannes, and one of its strongest narratives has been the directorial effort from Corbet. —R.F.
Male Actor, Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Hugh Grant, Heretic
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Glen Powell, Hit Man
PREDICTED WINNER: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
When it comes to potential Oscar nominations, even the likeliest players in this group—Eisenberg, Grant, and Stan—feel like longshots (though Stan has a better shot with the Oscar for The Apprentice, Globe-nominated on the drama side). I assume this race will come down to that trio, unless we get a vintage Globes pick in Powell, the hot A-lister of the group.
Though neither Heretic nor A Different Man are nominated anywhere else, Grant’s movie is more popular, and his performance has been more widely recognized (it’s also Critics Choice-nominated). Stan’s year, meanwhile, has been more broadly impressive, as his two Globe nods this year affirm. These voters surely know he’s about chanceless in the stacked drama-actor category, so this would be the place to reward him. My guess is that, given the relative thinness of this field, that’s enough. But Eisenberg could also emerge as a default choice, given that he’s repping the only best picture nominee of the six. —D.C.
Female Actor, Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
PREDICTED WINNER: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Zendaya, Challengers
Among the toughest categories to call this year, this one could quite possibly contain the future Oscar winner. While at least four of these competitors have strong narratives that would suggest a win, we’re banking on Erivo big-belting in a smash hit to win the voters’ favor. She’s got stiff competition in Madison, and maybe even Moore. But the combination of powerful singing (and acting!) and zeitgeist success has us thinking that Erivo is slightly ahead of the pack. —R.L.
Female Actor, Supporting Role, Motion Picture
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
PREDICTED WINNER: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez