The stakes have never been higher for the Outer Banks squad than they are in season 4, which has led many fans to believe that the consequences of this upcoming season’s treasure hunt could be… well, fatal.
In case you’re new here, Netflix’s hit YA drama-adventure series Outer Banks follows a ruthless group of teenagers known as the “Pogues” through a series of almost endless treasure hunting. Over the last three seasons, we’ve seen John B (played by Chase Stokes), Sarah (Madelyn Cline), Pope (Jonathan Daviss), JJ (Rudy Pankow), Kiara (Madison Bailey), and Cleo (Carlacia Grant) stumble in and out of trouble on their journey to finding the coveted Royal Merchant’s gold and subsequently the El Dorado gold, usually with “Kooks” Rafe (Drew Starkey) and Topper (Austin North) standing in their way.
From searching tirelessly through the streets of the Carolinas to literally deep-diving into the murky waters of hidden caves in the South American jungle, there’s almost nothing the Pogues won’t do to win the “G-game,” even if it means endangering their own lives. With characters who show this level of commitment, it’s no wonder their loyal fan base is also committed to solving every mystery in the show — and obsessing over twisty plot points, even before each season airs.
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Many OBX fan theories are running rampant on the internet, and from simple couple pairings — Kiara and JJ marriage speculators, more niche Rafe and Kiara truthers — to siblings twists — Sarah and JJ? — there’s a theory for every fan, OGs to newcomers alike. Since the show’s premiere in 2020, we’ve seen fans create entire hypothetical storylines out of small gestures and predict death dates based on a dearth of outtakes.
With Outer Banks season 4 part 1 arriving on Netflix on October 10, the bubbling anxiety of a new season has created an influx of new theories — and the one gaining the most traction is the hunch that a major character from the main cast will be killed off.
Considering what the OBX crew has endured, it’s honestly shocking and a bit unrealistic that a main character hasn’t died yet. (See: JJ being whacked in the head by a pistol and tumbling over 20,000 feet into the open ocean face first, Sarah being shot in the gut by her brother, etc.) Below, we’ll walk you through six of the most popular and deadly (and most importantly, unconfirmed!) Outer Banks season 4 fan theories, each centred on a different character, and make our own predictions on how much weight they hold.
1. Could this be Rafe Cameron’s redemption arc?
Drew Starkey as Rafe in Outer Banks season 3.JACKSON LEE DAVIS/NETFLIX