While Disney insiders remain optimistic, it would not be a shocker if the studio moves the first big event movie after exhibition’s COVID-19 shutdown off its July 24 date. There’s just too many gloomy signs out there.
Even though the Niki Caro-directed movie built up a great degree of awareness in its marketing earlier this year, recent promotions for the live-action remake of the Disney 1998 musical remain conspicuously absent. Instead, Disney released a trailer for 20th Century Studios’ Sept 18 Matthew Vaughn action pic The King’s Man.
More bad news: California, Texas and Florida all set records for the number of new COVID-19 cases in one day according to CNN. Nationwide there were 34,720 new cases reported Tuesday in the US — the third-highest number of new cases reported in one day since the beginning of the pandemic, based on data from Johns Hopkins University. California Governor Gavin Newsom said that the state saw 7,149 new COVID-19 infections, a 2K jump in the last 24 hours.
“We cannot continue to do what we have done over the past weeks,” said Newsom. He said some people got cabin fever, some people just let down their guard.”
“I’m not naive,” said Newsom, “People are mixing. We are spreading this virus. It is our behaviors that are leading to these numbers.”
Also further contributing to doubt about Mulan is the fact that China, a prime market for the movie, still hasn’t reopened its movie theaters yet. While some sources have pointed to Disney’s solid relations in the Middle Kingdom, and the positive fact that Shanghai Disneyland and Hong Kong Disneyland have reopened — and that cinemas can’t be far behind; the fact remain that movie theaters are still not open in China, and there’s no obvious sign when that will be.
Another reason why Mulan could move? Sources say that when Warner Bros. moved Tenet to July 31 from July 17, they automatically made Mulan the event movie to kick off the summer season. “Disney doesn’t like that,” says an exhibition source, “what studio wants to be in that position?” If Mulan stays on July 24, it could enjoy a week of Imax theaters, but will need to cede them once Tenet opens. With Warners having tied up the Imax theaters for Tenet for at least three weeks, the next time that Mulan could grab them is at the end of August. Another source tells me that Mulan never intended to have the Imax theaters anyway. The further we push event pics into September, the more the re-start of the school season is upon us.
So if Mulan moves, where does it go? Potentially to the end of the year at Christmas. Still, a Mulan move would be another blow to exhibitors who are trying to get back on their feet financially, this after Paramount’s recent decision to take the SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run into homes, and Warners moving Wonder Woman 1984 out of the summer season to the first weekend of October.
We should have a better idea by the end of the week as to what Mulan‘s next 2020 theatrical move is.