The time has come for Oscar nominations predictions. After months of precursor awards and critical buzz, and a seeming eternity of debating the artistic merit of Joker, the 2020 Oscar nominations will be announced Monday morning, with the awards themselves to follow not quite a month later on February 9. The smart money says that The Irishman and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood will be mentioned a lot, and that pretty much no matter what happens in best actor, the nominees will be a surprise. Beyond that? Read ahead for the Vanity Fair team’s picks for almost every category (we’ve left out the shorts, since they are virtually impossible to predict).
Check VF.com on Monday for plenty of in-depth reactions to the nominees themselves—and hopefully some boasting about how well we predicted them.
Best Picture
1917
The Irishman
Joio Rabbit
Joker
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
Uncut Gems
This year’s best-picture race is a bit like the 2020 Democratic presidential field. There are a small handful of truly viable candidates—1917, The Irishman, OUATIH, Parasite—and a large assortment of outliers with passionate, if specific, bases. That’s why we’re predicting a full roster of 10 nominees. (There are between 5 and 10 nominees each year, and a given title basically has to garner 5% of first-place votes to make the cut.) Our boldest pick is Uncut Gems, which you can think of as the Andrew Yang of the field—unabashedly eccentric, but adored by its adherents—over the more mainstream Ford v Ferrari. —Mike Hogan
Best Director
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Yes, this is yet another all-male lineup—and save for the wonderful director Bong, all-white too. You’re going to hear a lot about it, at least unless another contender sneaks in the slot we’ve given to Phillips—like Jojo Rabbit’s Taika Waititi, who earned the Directors Guild nomination, or Little Women’s Greta Gerwig, nominated in this category just two years ago. Then again, it could go to Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story. Bong, Mendes, Tarantino, and Scorsese all feel like virtual locks here, but the fifth slot—particularly for a directors branch that’s been fond of surprises recently—feels very much up for grabs. —Katey Rich
Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
This category remains very hard to predict. Like, say, maybe Taron Egerton gets in for Rocketman instead of Antonio Banderas. Or maybe they’re both in, and Jonathan Pryce takes Eddie Murphy’s spot while Leonardo DiCaprio gets left out in the cold. There are myriad iterations of this list of five that are entirely possible. The one true constant among all those realities is that Joaquin Phoenix is going to get nominated and, more than likely, Joaquin Phoenix is going to win. —Richard Lawson
Best Actress
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Awkwafina, The Farewell
The Academy historically loves actors playing real-life people—see: Julia Roberts as Erin Brockovich, Reese Witherspoon as June Carter Cash, Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher, etc. Zellweger, hot off her Golden Globe win, has other pluses for her as well—she is playing one of Hollywood’s own icons, Judy Garland. And while Johansson, Theron, Ronan, and Awkwafina all turned in stellar performances, they shared top billing with at least one other actor. Zellweger’s Judy, meanwhile—shown lonely in London during her final stage performances—is given ample space to sing, suffer, and charm all on her own. —Julie Miller
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood