Michael Bloomberg‘s public consideration of a last-minute 2020 run may have started a trend. With less than three months before the Iowa caucuses and state filing deadlines rapidly approaching, the New York Times and Associated Press reported Monday that former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick is also mulling a 2020 bid, after initially announcing in late 2018 that he would not run. Sources cited by the Boston Globe said that Patrick is “strongly considering” a run, and the politician is “likely to announce he’s in this week.”
Per the Times, Patrick has already started reaching out to Democratic officials to signal that he might run, including party leaders in early nominating states and former Vice President Joe Biden, the current Democratic front-runner. Patrick reportedly called Biden last week to say he was considering a run, but did not tell Biden that he had fully decided to enter the race at that point. As with Bloomberg, Patrick’s potential about-face is seemingly motivated by a dissatisfaction with the current field, as Democrats worry about who can successfully take on President Donald Trump. Party leaders who have spoken with Patrick told the Times that the former governor “doesn’t think any of the candidates running have established political momentum and that he thinks there is an opening for somebody who can unite both liberals and moderate Democrats.” (Patrick had previously said that a 2020 run was “not for me,” citing the “cruelty of our elections process” and its potential effect on those close to him.) Any potential decision will have to be made fast, however: The filing deadline for New Hampshire, an important early primary where New Englander Patrick would have a built-in advantage, is this Friday.
Before he announced his initial decision not to run, Patrick was one of the more hyped-up potential 2020 contenders, particularly among alumni of former President Barack Obama‘s administration. “The center of gravity would really shift in his direction in Obama world if he were to decide to run,” one former White House official told Politico in 2017. Even Obama himself—who’s friends with Patrick and, per Politico, considers Patrick “among the very small group of people whom he thinks has actual political talent”—had reportedly encouraged him to consider a presidential bid. But even if the Obama team gets behind him—which may now be trickier, given Biden’s candidacy—getting into the race this late in the game would still be an uphill battle. Unlike billionaire Bloomberg and relatively-late 2020 entrant Tom Steyer, Patrick wouldn’t be able to self-fund his own campaign, and would need to build a robust fundraising operation very quickly in a field that’s already strapped for cash. Patrick would also be far behind other candidates in establishing a presence in the early-voting states, and many of his former political aides are already working on other campaigns. The former governor may not be the staunch moderate that Bloomberg is (Sen. Elizabeth Warren has already named him as someone she could want in her potential Cabinet), but he’ll also have to answer to progressives for his already not-uncontroversial business career. Patrick went to Bain Capital after finishing up his gubernatorial duties, meaning he’ll have to contend with the residual Democratic bias against the investment firm from Mitt Romney‘s 2012 run, and has also held roles at Texaco, Coca-Cola, and subprime mortgage lender ACC Capital Holdings.
The current flood of Democratic politicians weighing whether they should make a last-ditch presidential bid comes as the Democratic elite have openly fretted about the current state of the Democratic race. Biden, the establishment class’s favored candidate, is losing steam; donor darling Mayor Pete Buttigieg faces anxieties about whether he can get non-white voters on board; and Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders‘ high rankings in the polls worry moderate Democrats terrified of wealth taxes and running on Medicare for All. “With Trump looming, there is genuine concern that the horse many have bet on may be pulling up lame and the horse who has sprinted out front may not be able to win,” former Obama adviser David Axelrod told the Times in October. And Bloomberg and Patrick may not even be the only would-be candidates mulling a last minute decision, as former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder is also reportedly considering a bid.